Rational variability in children’s causal inferences: The Sampling Hypothesis
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Rational variability in children's causal inferences: the Sampling Hypothesis.
We present a proposal-"The Sampling Hypothesis"-suggesting that the variability in young children's responses may be part of a rational strategy for inductive inference. In particular, we argue that young learners may be randomly sampling from the set of possible hypotheses that explain the observed data, producing different hypotheses with frequencies that reflect their subjective probability....
متن کاملCausal Ecological Inferences
This note observes that the ecological inference problem is very closely related to the problem of estimating causal effects. Due to the common mathematical structure, instrumental variables techniques solve the ecological inference problem under essentially the same set of conditions under which they allow researchers to draw conclusions about causality. More generally, carefully addressing th...
متن کاملAnalogical Inferences in Causal Systems
Analogical and causal reasoning theories both seek to explain patterns of inductive inference. Researchers have claimed that reasoning scenarios incorporating aspects of both analogical comparison and causal thinking necessitate a new model of inductive inference (Holyoak, Lee, & Lu, 2010; Lee & Holyoak, 2008). This paper takes an opposing position, arguing that features of analogical models ma...
متن کاملSpontaneous causal inferences
Three studies examine the hypothesis that people spontaneously (i.e., unintentionally and without awareness of doing so) infer causes (the Spontaneous Causal Inference, or SCI, hypothesis). Using a cued-recall paradigm, Study 1 examines whether SCIs occur and Study 2 allows for a comparison between implicitly inferred and explicitly mentioned causes. Study 3 examines whether SCIs can be fully e...
متن کاملTesting for Stochastic Non- Linearity in the Rational Expectations Permanent Income Hypothesis
The Rational Expectations Permanent Income Hypothesis implies that consumption follows a martingale. However, most empirical tests have rejected the hypothesis. Those empirical tests are based on linear models. If the data generating process is non-linear, conventional tests may not assess some of the randomness properly. As a result, inference based on conventional tests of linear models can b...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Cognition
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0010-0277
DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2012.10.010